downward warnings zurich networking group

The Swiss export industry is following its German neighbour and experiencing a 2019 bump in the road as international conditions tighten and worsen.

Zurich as the home to many key companies and their Head Offices will be affected. This is not visible at street level, except when you look at shop units to let, some areas which had previously done quite well ( Oerlikon station area an example) are looking less vibrant and busy. There are threads visible of the overall worsening of conditions of Switzerland’s export-driven economy.

The Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) has lowered its country forecast for this year. KOF announced on the 27th March that it had revised its growth forecast down from 1.6% to 1% for Switzerland’s gross domestic product. No change was made for 2020 ( remains at 2.1%).

Factors in the assessment include:

  • Brexit uncertainty
  • Worst in a decade poor low growth rates and related economic slowdown in China
  • The reduction in the value of the Euro and the slowing of economies in the wider European markets

KOF press release copy.

Bonuses and pay rises will be impacted, rises may not even be given. This means that local consumer spending will decline as the real-term effect of inflation adjustment spending reflects lower salary levels.

UBS, ZKB and Credit Suisse banks have all lowered their own forecasts for 2019.

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